Sunday, October 28, 2012

October Surprise: Hurricane Sandy

Will Hurricane Sandy be Obama's "McCain and the financial crisis" moment... or Romney's?

In 2004, McCain, thinking that the financial crisis was a big deal (it was) and that being Presidential meant running around with your head cut off, suspended his campaign and rushed back to Washington to... basically do nothing.  Obama, by contrast, kept on keeping on with his attacks on McCain, and ultimately just parroted Congressional Dems on the crisis.

Real crises are difficult beasts for politicians in the middle of a major race, let alone right at the end.  My sense is that Romney's steady, focused approach (combined with Chris Christie's presence as Governor of the state about to be the coming ashore point of Sandy!) gives him a leg up on Obama.  Obama is already reportedly planning a visit to FEMA headquarters... I'm guessing this'll appear to be exactly what it is:  posturing by getting in the way of the people actually doing the work.

That said, both candidates better tread lightly.....

Which brings us to what people along the heavily populated east coast between Virginia and Long Island should do...  Sitting well in the heartland of America behind an entire mountain range, I can afford to prognosticate.  And the National Hurricane Center's website is great for prognosticating.

That said, my take is that the wind will definitely knock out lots of power.  The rain will result in plenty of local flooding.  But neither of these effects will be a huge deal.  The thing that I think deserves some looking at, is the NHC's storm surge predictions.  It's the storm surge that overwhelmed New Orleans, and it'll be the storm surge that will really inundate low-lying communities... e.g., like large portions of Manhattan.

Bloomberg has closed the subway, and ordered evacuations of the lowest areas of the NYC.  Only time will tell the ultimate outcome.  For the time being, if your on the east coast, get stuff to higher floors, get ready to be without power, and, if you're in a storm-surge susceptible area: get out. 

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